As several key on-chain metrics reveal alarming trends in cryptocurrency markets, analysts are increasingly convinced that Bitcoin’s bull market may have reached its endpoint, potentially ushering in a period of bearish or range-bound activity for the next 6 to 12 months.
CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, has emerged as a prominent voice in this conversation, warning investors that the current cycle indicators suggest a prolonged bearish trend that might extend until 2026, contradicting earlier optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory.
The data points to a bearish Bitcoin cycle potentially lasting until 2026, challenging previous market optimism.
The MVRV Ratio Z-score, a vital on-chain indicator, has fallen below its 365-day moving average, historically signaling the onset of extended bear markets for the cryptocurrency.
This metric, coupled with declining SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) values, paints a concerning picture for Bitcoin’s short-term price action, with possible consolidation around support levels if prices drop below the essential $78,000 threshold.
Institutional participation, once the driving force behind Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, has demonstrably waned in recent months, evidenced by negative ETF inflows and reduced trading volumes.
Despite active spot trading volumes hovering around $100,000, these activities have failed to catalyze significant price appreciation, further reinforcing bearish sentiment among market participants.
The macroeconomic landscape compounds these concerns, with the OECD downgrading global GDP growth projections amid escalating geopolitical tensions and trade barriers.
The anticipated slowdown in U.S. economic growth could exert additional downward pressure on cryptocurrency markets, though some analysts suggest a potential return to quantitative easing might eventually reinvigorate Bitcoin prices. Investors looking to minimize losses during this downturn should consider blue-chip cryptocurrencies which typically demonstrate greater resilience during bear markets.
For investors traversing this uncertain terrain, risk management has become paramount.
While short-term market conditions appear unfavorable, Bitcoin’s fundamentals as a long-term investment vehicle remain intact. The current market is in the distribution stage, reflecting a period where early investors may be offloading positions to newer market entrants. Experienced investors are advised to prepare for market volatility as historical patterns suggest unpredictable price swings during transitional periods.
Market participants are advised to continuously monitor on-chain metrics for early signals of trend reversals, potentially preparing for a worst-case price scenario of approximately $63,000 before any substantial recovery materializes.
